Why experience can lead you to the wrong Google Ads diagnosis

"Google Ads is impossible." That's from a business owner with a PhD in physics.

He asked for help on Reddit.

Here's what we know from his post:

1. He's starting a fitness business.
2. He's trying to run Google Ads himself.
3. He's paid about $20 for four clicks.
4. None of those visitors appeared to engage with his website.
5. Some irrelevant searches triggered his ads.

We know nothing else: what his ads say, what his website looks like, what he's selling or how much a customer is worth.

But that didn't stop people recommending solutions. The five facts produced seven different recommendations:

• The problem is your budget. Spend more money.
• The problem is Google. The platform is designed to make you spend money.
• The problem is your lack of expertise. Hire an expert.
• You don't need an expert. Use AI.
• The problem is complexity. Simplify your campaigns and tighten your targeting.
• The problem is your campaign settings. Change your keywords, bidding, and negative keywords.
• Google Ads is the problem. Find another way to reach your customers.

Some of this might be excellent advice. But that's impossible to tell because the person asking for help didn't give enough context.

It made me think of the saying:

"If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

• Someone who's wasted money following Google's recommendations sees a Google problem.
• Someone who's rescued badly managed campaigns sees an expertise problem.
• Someone who's happy having AI manage their ads sees a problem AI can fix.
• Someone who's struggled with small advertising budgets sees a budget problem.

We all interpret problems through our own experience. That's not a bad thing. Someone who's dealt with a problem before has a head start. But it can also blind us to other possible explanations for what we're seeing.

I've managed Google Ads since 2007. When someone tells me their cost per lead has doubled, my mind jumps to several possible explanations. (Increased cost per click, reduced conversion rate, leads going missing, or some combination of these, in case you were wondering.)

But I wouldn't know what's actually to blame without digging a little deeper.

Experience should tell us where to look, not what conclusion to reach.

I'm going to try to stop myself from jumping to conclusions by asking three questions next time I investigate a Google Ads problem:

1. Why do I think this is the problem?
2. What else could explain it?
3. What would make my explanation wrong?

They're probably worth asking yourself before you act on anyone else's advice, too.

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